AI predicts HSV promotion – these wins are still missing

Hamburger SV is on the verge of its long-awaited promotion to the Bundesliga. After the 29th matchday of the 2024/25 second division season, HSV leads the table – but how realistic is direct promotion really?

We now have the AI ​​platform Perplexity.AI questioned and analyzed what is still needed for a return to the top division.

Current league table: HSV at the top

After 29 games, the situation at the top of the table looks very promising:

PLATZ	The club	Points
#1	Hamburger SV	52
#2	1. FC Köln	51
#3	SV Elversberg	47
#4	Fortuna Düsseldorf	47

There are still five matchdays left – so there are a total of 15 points that can still be awarded.

AI calculation: This is how many points HSV needs

Direct promotion is tied to first or second place. To secure at least second place, HSV must outperform the competition—especially Elversberg and Düsseldorf.

The maximum possible final score of the pursuers:

◉ 1. FC Cologne: 66 points
◉ SV Elversberg: 62 points
◉ Fortuna Düsseldorf: 62 points

This means that in order to finish safely ahead of Elversberg and Düsseldorf, HSV needs at least 63 points.

Since Hamburg currently has 52 points, they are still missing eleven points – that’s four wins.

➡️ At least four wins from five games means: promotion achieved through our own efforts.

What is the probability of promotion?

The AI ​​analysis clearly shows HSV at an advantage:

➡️ Currently the lead over places #3 and #4 is a full five points.

➡️ The pursuers have to win almost every game to catch HSV.

➡️ In addition, Elversberg, Düsseldorf and Cologne sometimes take points from each other.

Perplexity’s assessment:

Even two or three wins give the team a very good chance of promotion. Four wins secure direct promotion, regardless of the other teams' performance for the rest of the season.

Remaining schedule: These opponents are still waiting for HSV

Gameday	opponent	Home/Away
30	FC Schalke 04	Away
31	Karlsruher SC	Home
32	SV Darmstadt 98	Away
33	SSV Ulm	Home
34	SpVgg Greuther Furth	Away

The remaining schedule is manageable. Away games against opponents like Schalke and Darmstadt, in their "cauldrons," suit HSV. And Ulm, Fürth, and Karlsruhe are currently in the middle or bottom of the table.

Conclusion: Promotion almost within reach

HSV has the best chance in the promotion race. Four wins guarantee direct promotion.

But even with fewer points, the path to the Bundesliga is realistic – as long as the competition doesn’t play perfectly.

➡️ Prediction: HSV's promotion is very likely. Artificial Intelligence has calculated it. Now it's up to the team to seize this historic opportunity...

Sierks Media / © Photo: Wikimedia Commons, Werner 100359, CC BY-SA 4.0